Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

<body stylesrc="../_private/template_title.htm" topmargin="10" leftmargin="10" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" link="#333366" vlink="#000000" alink="#000000"> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" cellpadding="0" id="table2"> <tr> <td width="780"> <div align="center"> <table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" height="206" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" id="table3"> <tr> <td valign="top" align="right" height="198" width="1%"> <p align="left"> <img src="../images/book_franses.gif" alt="book_franses.gif (2356 bytes)" border="0" width="132" height="200"></td> <td valign="top" align="left" height="198"> <table border="0" cellspacing="1" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" id="table4"> <tr> <td colspan="3" width="0%"> <p class="book_title">Time Series Models<br> <span class="book_title_sub">for Business and Economic Forecasting</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> <img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"><img border="0" src="../images/blank_2x2.gif" width="2" height="2"></td> <td width="52%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="144" align="left" rowspan="9"> <map name="FPMap2"> <area href="../main/ratings.htm" shape="rect" coords="73, 0, 164, 33"> </map> <img border="0" src="../images_title/franse14.gif" usemap="#FPMap2" width="215" height="158"></td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" valign="top" height="16" align="left" width="50%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> <td class="book_details" height="32" align="center" width="50%" rowspan="2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="1%" class="book_details_tags" valign="top" height="16" align="left"> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div align="center"> <center> <table border="0" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="468" id="table5"> <tr> <td> <script type="text/javascript"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script> </td></tr> </table> </center> </div> <table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" id="table6"> <tr> <td width="55%" valign="top"> <p align="left" class="body"><b>Time Series Models</b> by Franses is an accessible, well organized and clearly written book. It will teach you the basics—terminology, statistical methods and mathematical ways of thinking—that you will need to know before proceeding to more advanced books. It introduces standard models, including MA, AR, ARMA and ARCH. It covers techniques for addressing non-stationarity, seasonality and conditional heteroskedasticity. It touches on advanced topics like fractional integration and cointegration.</p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="125" align="left" id="table7"> <tr> <td width="120"> <script type="text/javascript"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script> </td><td width="5"> </td> </tr> </table> <p align="left" class="body">This is an overview book. Discussions are intuitive and mostly not too technical. I highly recommend it for practitioners who need familiarity with time series methods but will not be implementing those methods themselves. I also recommend it to more quantitative professionals as a wonderful book to get "oriented" before proceeding to more sophisticated books on time series analysis. For analysts or other readers who need to use time series methods but lack an advanced degree in a quantitative field, you may want to read Franses along with the more practice-oriented Enders (<a href="../titles/enders_w_(1995).htm">2003</a>) or simply read the outstanding introduction by Blackwell and Davis (<a href="../titles/brockwell_and_davis_2002.htm">2002</a>).</p> </td> <td width="45%" valign="top" class="body"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" id="table8"> <tr> <td width="100%" bgcolor="#333366"> <p class="header_yellow" align="center">Contents</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="100%" class="explanatory_text"> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#CCCCFF" bgcolor="#CCCCFF" width="100%" id="table9"> <tr> <td class="contents_expanded"> <p class="contents">Preface</p> <p class="contents">1. Introduction and overview</p> <p class="contents">2. Key features of economic time series</p> <p class="contents">3. Useful concepts in univariate time series analysis</p> <p class="contents">4. Trends</p> <p class="contents">5. Seasonality</p> <p class="contents">6. Aberrant observations </p> <p class="contents">7. Conditional heteroskedasticity</p> <p class="contents">8. Non-linearity</p> <p class="contents">9. Multivariate time series</p> <p class="contents">10. Common features</p> <p class="contents">Data appendix</p> <p class="contents">References</p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <p align="center" class="body"> </p> </td> </tr> </table> <div align="left"> <div align="left"> <table border="1" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" width="100%" id="table10"> <tr> <td width="50%" bgcolor="#FFFFCC" align="center"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" bgcolor="#FFFFCC" id="table11"> <tr> <td> <p class="body" style="margin-bottom: 5; margin-left:10; margin-right:5; margin-top:5"><b><font color="#333366" size="3">For related books, see sections:</font></b></p> <p class="bullet" style="margin-left: 10; margin-top: 5; margin-bottom: 5"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet.gif" width="20" height="10"><a target="_top" href="../link_topic/math_probability.htm">Mathematics - Probability</a></p> <p class="bullet" style="margin-left: 10; margin-top: 5; margin-bottom: 5"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet.gif" width="20" height="10"><a target="_top" href="../link_topic/math_time_series.htm">Mathematics - Time Series Analysis</a></p> <p class="bullet" style="margin-left: 10; margin-top: 5; margin-bottom: 5"> <img border="0" src="../images/bullet.gif" width="20" height="10"><a target="_top" href="../link_topic/finance_financial_econometrics.htm">Finance - Financial Econometrics</a></p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td width="50%" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" align="left" valign="top"> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" bordercolor="#111111" width="100%" id="table12"> <tr> <td width="100%"> <script type="text/javascript"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> </script> </td></tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </div> </div> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table>  <table border="0" style="border-collapse: collapse" width="100%" cellpadding="0" id="table1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"> <tr> <td colspan="2" height="12"> <p style="margin-top: 0"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="right"> <p align="left" style="margin-bottom: 2px"> <a target="_top" href="http://www.riskexpertise.com/link/advertising.htm"> <font size="1" color="#000000" face="Arial">Ads by Contingency Analysis.</font></a></td> <td align="left"> <p align="right" style="margin-bottom: 2px"> <a target="_top" href="http://www.riskexpertise.com/link/advertising.htm"> <font size="1" color="#000000" face="Arial">Advertise on this site.</font></a></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" colspan="2">  <iframe src="http://servedbyadbutler.com/adserve/;ID=147917;size=300x250;setID=93136;type=iframe" allowtransparency="true" background-color="transparent" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no"> <![if lt IE 4]> <script src="http://servedbyadbutler.com/adserve/;ID=147917;size=300x250;setID=93136;type=js" type="text/javascript"> </script> <noscript> <a href="http://servedbyadbutler.com/go2/;ID=147917;size=300x250;setID=93136"> <img src="http://servedbyadbutler.com/adserve/;ID=147917;size=300x250;setID=93136;type=img" border="0" height="250" width="300" alt=""></a> </noscript><![endif]> </iframe>   </td> </tr> </table> <p align="center" style="margin-top: 20"> <map name="FPMap0_I1"> <area href="http://www.riskbook.com" shape="rect" coords="0, 0, 184, 29" target="_top"></map> <img border="0" src="../images/open_book_riskbook.gif" usemap="#FPMap0_I1" width="185" height="30"></p> <p class="a" align="center"><font face="Arial" size="2"><a href="../main/disclaimer.htm">disclaimer</a></font></p> <p class="a" align="center"><span class="verdana10">website:</span> <a target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com"> <font size="2" face="Arial">http://www.contingencyanalysis.com</font></a><br> <span class="verdana10">books direct link:</span> <a target="_top" href="http://www.riskbook.com"><font size="2" face="Arial">http://www.riskbook.com</font></a><br> copyright <font face="Times New Roman">©</font> Contingency Analysis, 1996 - current</p> <p class="a" align="center"><map name="FPMap1_I1"> <area target="_top" href="http://www.contingencyanalysis.com" shape="rect" coords="0, 0, 240, 88"> </map><img border="0" src="../images/logo_book_white.gif" usemap="#FPMap1_I1" width="241" height="89"></p>  </body>