Recovery Risk

Readers will recognize Edward Altman as the inventor of the famous Altman's Z Score for assessing a corporation's credit quality. Here he has teamed up with Andrea Resti and Andrea Sironi to prepare an edited collection of articles on recovery risk.

 

The new Basel II Accord and structured instruments such as CDOs have made credit risk modeling a new priority. Research is progressing at an accelerating clip. Most has focused on quantifying probability of default for a single credit or methods of adding correlation to such models so they can be extended to portfolios of credits. Less work has focused on modeling the other two components of credit risk—exposure at default and recovery rate. This book has 19 chapters on the latter topic, and they are outstanding.

Traditionally, credit models have either assumed a fixed recovery rate or have treated the recovery rate as random but independent of the probability of default. Chapters of this book do three things. They

present empirical studies of recovery rates that discredit those simplistic assumptions,

survey the growing literature, and

describe new, sophisticated models for loss given default.

The chapters are divided into four parts:

Defining and Measuring Recovery Risk

Measuring Loss Given Default on Specific Portfolios

The PD/LGD Correlation

Advanced Methodologies

Discussions cover corporate debt as well as bank loans and leasing portfolios. There is plenty of depth here. Discussions are mostly non-technical, but the occasional integral or mathematical expectation makes an appearance. Obviously, a book like this will appeal primarily to quantitative professionals—a lot of sophisticated math is alluded to. There are chapters written describing vendor's products, so there is some marketing going on. These chapters are substantive, so they earned their place in the book.

Contents

Introduction

DEFINING AND MEASURING RECOVERY RISK

1. What Do We Know About Loss Given Default?

2. Defining LGD: The Basel II Perspective

3. Loss Given Default: A Review of the Literature

4. Estimating Recovery Risk by Means of a Quantitative Model: LossCalc

5. Recovery Ratings: A Fundamental Approach to Estimating Recovery Risk

MEASURING LGD ON SPECIFIC PORTFOLIOS

6. How to Measure Recoveries and Provisions on Bank Lending: Methodology and Empirical Evidence

7. Recovery Rates in the Banking Industry: Stylised Facts Emerging from the Italian Experience

8. Estimating LGD in the Leasing Industry: Empirical Evidence from a Multivariate Model

9. Recovery Rates from Distressed Management Buy-Outs

THE PD/LGD CORRELATION

10. The Effects of Systematic Credit Risk: a False Sense of Security

11. LGD in a Structural Model of Default

12. The PD/LGD Link: Empirical Evidence from the Bond Market

13. Systematic Risk in Recovery Rates of US Corporate Credit Exposures

14. The PD/LGD Link: Implications for Credit Risk Modelling

15. Credit Risk Assessment and Stochastic LGD: An Investigation of Correlation Effects

ADVANCED METHODOLOGIES

16. Choosing the Discount Factor for Estimating Economic LGD

17. Estimating “Distressed” LGD on Defaulted Exposures: A Portfolio Model Applied to Leasing Contracts

18. Estimation of Recovery Rate Densities: Non-parametric and Semi-parametric Approaches versus Industry Practice

19. Estimating Conditional Probability Distributions of Recovery Rates: A Utility-Based Approach

For anyone with an interest in credit risk modeling, this book is a must read. For recovery risk, it defines the state of the art. [11/14/05]

 

For related books, see sections:

Risk Management - Credit Risk

Financial Engineering - Pricing Credit Risk

 

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