Monte Carlo Methods in Finance

Author Peter Jackel doesn't seem to have much to say about Monte Carlo methods in finance. Excluding the index, the book is just 210 pages long, and he spends most of those pages seeming to "run out the clock."

 

Monte Carlo methods are mentioned briefly in two opening chapters, but the author spends most of those chapters on topics unrelated to the title of the book. He offers brief descriptions of numerous probability distributions—Bernoulli, Poisson, gamma, exponential, Cauchy, Student-t, Pareto ... One gets the impression he will be using them all in later chapters, but he doesn't. He is simply listing probability distributions. The highly technical Feynman-Kac theorem is introduced, but it too isn't used for anything later in the book.

Chapters 3 through 6 discuss topics such as standard stochastic processes, correlation and related metrics of co-dependence, and techniques to "recover" estimated covariance matrices that are not positive semi-definite. Discussions tend to be cryptic, needlessly technical and non rigorous. Also, Jackel doesn't tie them in well to finance and the Monte Carlo method.

Chapters 8, 9 and 10 cover pseudorandom numbers, low-discrepancy numbers, and non-uniform variates. Coverage of the topics is spotty and at times quite frustrating. For example, Jackel proposes the use of the logistic map to generate pseudorandom numbers. He then delves into an elaborate discussion of this, mentioning chaos theory and presenting graphs that I don't understand. Finally, he concludes that the resulting generator has severe shortcomings that argue against its use—something researchers concluded decades ago. Why did he even raise the subject? He briefly recommends several pseudorandom number generators. I happen to be familiar with these generators. They might have been state-of-the-art 25 years ago, but they are not today. Having spent pages describing the useless logistic generator, the author declines to describe recommended generators, instructing us to read the research papers ourselves.

Chapter 10 covers variance reduction and related techniques. Some discussions are better than others. A few are just hand waving. Brownian bridges and related techniques for generating paths are covered, and their treatment is quite nice.

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The Mathematics Behind Monte Carlo Methods

3. Stochastic Dynamics

4. Process-driven Sampling

5. Correlation and Co-movement

6. Salvaging a Linear Correlation Matrix

7. Pseudo-random Numbers

8. Low-discrepancy Numbers

9. Non-uniform Variates

10. Variance Reduction Techniques

11. Greeks

12. Monte Carlo in the BGM/J Framework

13. Non-recombining Trees

14. Miscellanea

In Chapter 11, we get our first financial application of the Monte Carlo method—estimation of the Greek factor sensitivities. Then, in Chapter 12, we finally turn to derivatives pricing. We are now at page 159 in the book. There are 51 pages to go. Instead of developing the topic from basic principles, Jackel devotes Chapter 12 to describing how to price Bermudan swaptions.

If you have a pressing need to price Bermudan swaptions, you are going to be as happy as a pig in mud at this point. If not, you will be skipping forward to Chapter 13—just 27 pages left in the book—to read about non-recombining trees in a primarily fixed income context. Chapter 14 discusses miscellaneous topics: interpolation of term structures, CPU usage, etc. Then the book is over.

In summary, this book covers a sampling of topics. Not all are related well to the use of Monte Carlo methods in finance. The book is not particularly advanced, but it is needlessly technical at points. It is not easy to read.

I think anyone interested in Monte Carlo methods and finance might want to flip through this book. A lot of topics are touched on, and even experienced professionals will learn some things they didn't know. As a unified treatment of the subject, the book falls flat. If you are looking for a solid introduction to Monte Carlo methods (and especially variance reduction), there are better introductions. If you are interested in the use of Monte Carlo methods in financial engineering, this book doesn't compare to Glasserman's (2003) excellent treatise. For use of the Monte Carlo method in value-at-risk, see Holton (2003). For its use in credit risk modeling, see Arvanitis and Gregory (2002).

 

 

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