Credit Risk Measurement

Saunders and Allen provide a top-down introduction to many of the standard models for measuring credit risk in bond or debt portfolios. Models include the KMV, CreditMetrics, McKinsey, KPMG, Loan Analysis System (LAS) and CSFP models. Each model is explained and comparisons are made. Additional chapters cover loan portfolio selection, back-testing issues, stress-testing, RAROC, off-balance sheet credit risk, and credit derivatives.

 

This is a wonderful book for someone to get their "feet wet." The vast literature on portfolio credit risk modeling can be intimidating, and it is difficult to know where to begin. Saunders and Allen provide an excellent jump-off point. This book is easy to read and offers an overview of the subject.

The book has two flaws. First, its top-down approach of describing entire models is nice because it goes directly to results, but it doesn't build much of an intellectual foundation. Reading this book, you rapidly become familiar with various models, but you don't achieve depth of understanding. You would never imagine that many of the techniques can be applied in a financial engineering context as well. Plan on graduating to more substantive books by Bluhm, Overbeck and Wagner (2003) and/or Duffie and Singleton (2003).

Contents

1. Why New Approaches to Credit Risk Measurement and Management?

2. Traditional Approaches to Credit Risk Measurement

3. Loans as Options and the KMV Model

4. The VAR Approach: J. P. Morgan's CreditMetrics and Other Models

5. The Macro Simulation Approach: The McKinsey Model and Other Models

6. The Risk-Neutral Valuation Approach: KPMG's Loan Analysis System (LAS) and Other Models

7. The Insurance Approach: Mortality Models and the CSFP Credit Risk Plus Model

8. A Summary and Comparison of New Internal Model Approaches

9. An Overview of Modern Portfolio Theory and Its Application to Loan Portfolios

10. Loan Portfolio Selection and Risk Measurement

11. Back-Testing and Stress-Testing Credit Risk Models

12. RAROC Models

13. Off-Balance-Sheet Credit Risk

14. Credit Derivatives

Second, the book is sloppy. Consider the graph of a normal density that doesn't look the least bit normal—it isn't even symmetric! The authors have a tendency to say things they don't mean. Consider this gem that appears on p. 67: "In a world free of arbitrage opportunities, expected returns on a risky asset must equal the return on a risk-free asset ..."

Despite its flaws, I highly recommend the book. If you accept it for what it is—a sloppy-but-accessible whirlwind introduction to portfolio credit risk measurement—you won't be disappointed. This is a popular book.

On the other hand, Crouhy et al. (2001) is an alternative, offering an equally accessible introduction to much—but not all—of the same material.

For related books, see sections:

Risk Management - Credit Risk

Risk Management - General

 

 

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